The Acceleration of a Crisis

On August 25 over 440 bodies were found at different locations across Syria. According to CNN, the weekend death toll toped 600, ending a week of triple-digit deaths every single day. 21,00 people have died since the conflict began 16 months ago, that number is climbing more and more rapidly. Syrian Army forces regularly use mortars, helicopters, planes, tanks and large guns against the opposition. House-to house raids and executions in dissident neighborhoods are becoming increasingly common, with children and other unarmed civilians regularly found among the victims.

One major advantage to the oppositions is the increasing rate of defections. The New York Times estimated the number of defected soldiers to be 10,000 by last October, though current numbers are impossible to estimate. A Turkish official told the Times that 20-30 military defectors were crossing the border every day. This doesn't include those who have crossed Jordan and Lebanon’s borders or the multitude who have chosen to stay in Syria and fight back against the regime.

Members of the Free Syrian Army gather in Idlib after five
days of shelling.

In March 2011 protest against President Bashar al-Assad and his governing regime. These demonstrations were almost exclusively non-violent, though Assad’s forces responded violently. Police and Military have used live fire to disperse crowds of protesters and often attack homes and neighborhoods were protesters are believed to be. Slowly neighborhoods began organizing small defense forces who have since evolved to become a large part of the rebel Free Syrian Army (FSA). Both the Syrian Armed Forces and the FSA have escalated  their tactics over the last year, though Assad’s Armed Forces have far more access to advanced military equipment and munitions. Many Syrians have given up on the peaceful protest and now hope only in a successful coup of Assad’s regime. A powerful blog regarding what is happening in Syria can be found here.

Al-Jazera reports that 26 military and security officials, 9 diplomats, 4 members of parliament and 3 members of the cabinet have defected from the government. Most notable was Prime Minister Riyad Farid Hijab, who was appointed to the post in June but has been a part of President Assad’s Ba’ath party government since 1998.

At a press conference in Jordan the former Prime Minister encouraged the Syrian army to “follow the example of Egypt's and Tunisia's armies [and] take the side of people.” He also said that President Assad’s regime was nearing collapse on both economic and moral grounds. He said that there were many more government officials looking for an opportunity to leave and join the opposition. This position was echoed by Egypt’s new president Mohamed Morsi at the Non-Aligned summit in Iran this week, prompting a walk-out from the Syrian delegation. 

Government forces have been shelling Aleppo heavily over
the last few weeks. Destruction and death fuel anti-Assad
anger, compelling many to flee the country or take up arms
against the regime. 

While abstaining from military intervention, the United States has been involved in a few ways. As a part of international sanctions against Assad’s regime the US treasury has frozen official’s financial assets. After Hijab’s defection and proclamation of support for the opposition his assets were released and all sanctions were lifted off of him. This may serve as an incentive for other officials to defect.

The United States has also presented a small presence on the ground in the conflict to provide training in civil administration to rebel groups who know little about administering the neighborhoods and towns they now control. Keeping utilities running and managing a limited budget are essential to keeping the ‘hearts and minds’ struggle for popular support. 

This is a major struggle for the Free Syrian Army: to not only defeat Assad’s forces on the ground, but to do so without loosing their status as a desirable alternative. There have been accusations of human rights violations against the rebel army (such as killing prisoners of war). It’s clear that the social legitimacy for Assad’s leadership has be lost in all but a few communities, but the legitimacy of the FSA is also in question. 

In spite of increased violence, most Syrians still seek a safe homeland and
legitimate government. In Daraya-a center of recent violence-people gathered
today for a non-violent protest and help up flowers to show their hope for a
peaceful end to the violence.

I hate to admit that this post is overcrowded with the many complex parts of the Syrian conflict, and that many important issues have gone unmentioned, but the events there are far to big to fit into one post. Please, take this as little more than a brief preface; to be followed by some much more articulate-and helpful-post in the future. Thanks for reading.